Workshop

Build With Conviction: Product Judgment for the AI Era

Karen Ng

Founder, 4x Head of Product

Build conviction in a bet you can defend, and the courage to keep going.

Your CEO wants an AI strategy. Your board wants to know where you’re placing bets. Your team is waiting for a direction. AI made building cheap, so the hard part is no longer shipping. It’s choosing the bet, defending it with incomplete evidence, and holding it when the early numbers wobble.

Most leaders answer with a portfolio of pilots, because it feels safer. But pilots aren’t a strategy, and your org can feel the difference.

I’ve been head of product at Microsoft, Google, HubSpot, and a Series B startup out of stealth, and made disruptive calls through the cloud, mobile, and AI shifts. I used a similar pattern to build conviction for each one. And now I'll share that repeatable framework with you: called Signal to Conviction.

You’ll learn to read a shift in customer or market behavior before it hits your numbers, separate real signal from noise, and know when you’ve earned conviction. Then you’ll learn to bring your leadership team with you, earn the next yes, and set kill signals up front.

You’ll leave with your Conviction Case for a real bet, pressure-tested live: the recommendation, the first test, and a one-pager your leadership can say yes to.

What you’ll learn

Learn the Signal to Conviction framework to build conviction in a bet you can defend, and find the courage to see it through.

  • Spotting patterns that show a real change in human or market behavior, before it shows up in your own numbers.

  • Telling the difference between what people say they'll do and what they're already doing, often with a messy workaround.

  • Checking whether more than one independent signal points the same way, or whether you're looking at a single story.

  • A clear recommendation about which AI opportunity to pursue and why

  • A map of the shift you're betting on, and the assumptions that could change your decision

  • A simple check that separates a real pattern from a story you want to be true.

Workshop agenda

  • (00:00) Find the real signal before it’s obvious

    Learn the six steps of Signal to Conviction through real bets at Microsoft, Google, and HubSpot, and the signal types worth watching. Lecture and discussion.

  • (00:45)Finding signal from behavior: Tell a dent from a rat

    Work through a customer dataset with Claude or ChatGPT. Separate signal from noise, name the top three themes, and compare your read with a partner. Hands-on exercise.

  • (1:15) Map an inflection point, then map your own

    Map a well-known case study as a group, then build an Inflection Map for your own bet using the Signal to Conviction framework. Exercise. Includes a short break.

  • (2:20) Turn your map into a Conviction Case

    Choose who is ready first, decide what you’ll stop doing, and set kill signals that tell you by a set date if you’re wrong. Hands-on writing.

  • (2:50) Build the courage and buy-in to make it happen

    Turn your case into a one-page pitch for your CEO or board, then present to a skeptical board for live feedback. Exercise and live seat.

  • (3:40) Close

    Leave with your next step.

Learn directly from Karen

Karen Ng

Karen Ng

Contact

4x Head of Product: led cloud, mobile & AI shifts (Microsoft, Google, HubSpot)

See all products from Karen

Who this workshop is for

  • Heads of product (including first-time), product directors, and senior product managers who own meaningful product decisions

  • Engineering and design leaders who are responsible for choosing product direction and getting others behind it

  • Founders choosing where to place their next bet

What's included

Lifetime access

Go back to course content and recordings whenever you need to.

Community of peers

Stay accountable and share insights with like-minded professionals.

Certificate of completion

Share your new skills with your employer or on LinkedIn.

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