Class is in session
Decision-Making for Leaders: Thinking Probabilistically
4 Days
·Cohort-based Course
Adopt a probabilistic mindset, quantify risks, and foster a culture that empowers your team to make better, evidence-based decisions.
Class is in session
Decision-Making for Leaders: Thinking Probabilistically
4 Days
·Cohort-based Course
Adopt a probabilistic mindset, quantify risks, and foster a culture that empowers your team to make better, evidence-based decisions.
Previously at
Course overview
Thinking Probabilistically
Adopt a probabilistic mindset—one that embraces uncertainty, quantifies risk, and uses data-driven tools to improve your ability to make decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Leaders will learn how to systematically consider a range of outcomes and assign probabilities to each, improving their ability to make sound decisions within uncertain contexts. This course also teaches leaders how to foster this mindset within their teams, empowering others to approach decisions with strategic foresight and evidence-based judgment.
Our courses are carefully designed to address the unique challenges that leaders face today, combining scientific rigor with real-world application. Our curriculum is based on three key pillars:
1. The Individual as a Leader –
Strengthening personal judgment, self-awareness, and decision-making abilities to ensure higher decision quality.
2. The Organizational and Broader Context –
Equipping leaders to foster high-quality decision-making processes within teams and across the organization.
3. Decision Sciences –
Integrating evidence-based frameworks, probabilistic thinking, and cognitive bias mitigation to drive better decision outcomes.
Who is this course for?
01
Executive Leaders:
Those responsible for high-stakes decisions who are looking to enhance organizational effectiveness and culture.
02
Mid-Level Managers:
Leaders aiming to reduce biases and increase rationality in team decision-making while improving outcomes for all.
03
Emerging Leaders:
Those aiming to build a strong foundation and gain high-quality decision-making skills early in their careers.
What you’ll get out of this course
Understand and apply probabilistic thinking to improve decision-making under uncertainty,
with respect to the past, present, and future.
Differentiate between objective and subjective probabilities.
Learn how to apply each appropriately.
Use concepts such as base rates, expected value, and Bayesian thinking to improve judgments.
Create more robust, data-driven decisions
Apply tools such as 90% confidence intervals, explicit forecasting, and scenario planning.
Encouraging better decision-making across their organization
Learn how to foster a culture of probabilistic thinking within your teams.
This course includes
3 interactive live sessions
Lifetime access to course materials
39 in-depth lessons
Direct access to instructor
Projects to apply learnings
Guided feedback & reflection
Private community of peers
Course certificate upon completion
Maven Satisfaction Guarantee
This course is backed by Maven’s guarantee. You can receive a full refund within 14 days after the course ends, provided you meet the completion criteria in our refund policy.
Decision-Making for Leaders: Thinking Probabilistically
Course syllabus
Week 1
Dec
3
Session 1: Introduction to Probabilistic Thinking
Module 1: Welcome and Introductions
Module 2: Introduction to Probabilistic Thinking
Module 3: Subjective vs. Objective Probabilities
Module 4: Base Rates and Reference Class Forecasting
Module 5: 90% Confidence Intervals
Dec
4
Session 2: Applying Probabilistic Thinking to Leadership Decisions
Module 6: Expected Value in Leadership Decisions
Module 7: Calibration of Confidence
Module 8: Bayesian Thinking and Updating Beliefs
Dec
6
Session 3: Forecasting and Creating a Culture of Probabilistic Thinking
Module 9: Explicit Forecasting and Improving Predictions (Tetlock's Insights)
Module 10: Recognizing and Managing Risk and Uncertainty
Module 11: Fostering a Culture of Probabilistic Thinking in Teams
Module 12: Building an Action Plan
Bonus
Additional Resources
Meet your instructor
Joseph E. Sweeney, Ed.D.
President and Founder
With over three decades of experience spanning education, leadership, and innovation, Joseph Sweeney is a recognized leader in decision-making and organizational transformation.
As the founder and President of the Decision Leadership Institute, Joe leverages his extensive background in education, executive leadership, and decision science to equip leaders with the tools to improve judgment and decision quality across their organizations.
Before founding DLI, Joe served as the Executive Director of the Alliance for Decision Education, where he led a national movement to bring decision education into K-12 learning. Under his leadership, the organization grew from a regional initiative to a national force, developing award-winning programs, securing millions in program and research funding, and establishing a robust community of thought leaders, including Nobel Laureates. Joe’s strategic vision and expertise in scaling organizations have made him a trusted advisor in leadership circles.
With advanced degrees in mathematics, economics, and educational leadership from institutions such as Villanova University, Temple University, and the University of Pennsylvania, Joe’s work continues to shape how leaders and organizations approach decision-making in complex, rapidly changing environments.
Be the first to know about upcoming cohorts
Decision-Making for Leaders: Thinking Probabilistically
Course Schedule
5 hours
Tuesday, November 12
1:00pm - 2:30pm EST
This course takes place over 3 days and each session is 90 minutes.
Wednesday, November 13
1:00 - 2:30 pm EST
Friday, November 15
1:00 - 2:30 pm EST
Your Decision Leadership Journey Starts Here
Dynamic and Interactive
Engage in quizzes, case studies, and exercises that help you apply decision-making concepts directly to your unique situation.
Small, Focused Cohorts
We cap our courses at 18 to ensure high-quality discussions, personalized feedback, and a tailored learning experience that addresses your leadership challenges.
Learn with a cohort of peers
Join a community of like-minded people who want to learn and grow alongside you
Actionable Takeaways
Gain practical tools, frameworks, and strategies that you can implement right away, helping you and your organization make better, more informed decisions immediately.
Cutting-Edge Decision Science
Innovative, research-backed course content, frameworks, and methodologies will ensure that you are positioned to tackle the uncertainty of our modern and complex world.
Continued Learning & Support
Stay connected through our newsletter, coaching sessions, decision-making resources, and community forums for continuous learning and long-term success.
Stay in the Loop
Sign up to be the first to know about course updates.
Be the first to know about upcoming cohorts