Macro and Anti-Macro

Introducing the basic macro framework for understanding relationships between key variables; explaining the boom-bust cycle and outcomes of fiscal and monetary policy.

You will walk out with a plug-n-play framework for understanding what happens when the Fed raises rates, or when governments increase spending.

CA deficits and CP surpluses, savings and investments, fixed vs flexible exchange rate regimes, Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, how Soros broke the Bank of England?

You will walk out with a plug-n-play framework for understanding exchange rate impacts, imports and exports, and international finance.

Enter politics and the real world. Financial crisis 07-09. Macro gone wrong: debts and deficits, austerity, systemic instabilities.

PLUS: a primer in causal inference.

You’ll get a good idea of when to trust macro and when not to trust it.

Inflation and hyperinflation explained. Monetary policy since 2008. QE (quantity theory of money, Fed balance sheets). Revisiting the boom-and-bust cycle.

You will walk out with an understanding of why macro models fail, what drives inflation, and the boom-and-bust cycle.

Recognizing bubbles. Applying the knowledge to financial markets. Understanding the dangers for your portfolio. Bond markets and the yield curve. Which indicators should I keep track of? Oraclum’s predictions.

You’ll walk out with a functioning knowledge of how macro impacts your portfolio and how to protect yourself from macro fluctuations.

You will present your Final project and give a presentation on your overview on the economy over the next 6 to 12 months.

You can work in groups (of 2 to 3 max) or individually, and chose any economy that you like (US, EU, China, global, or any country you want).

Start with a brief global overview and then focus on country specifics.