Macro and Anti-Macro

How to think like an economist - and when not to - in order to become a better investor.

A framework for understanding all things macro.

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1 hour

26 mins

Vuk Vuković

with

Vuk Vuković

Oxford PhD | Co-founder & CEO of Oraclum | 5-year teaching experience

A pattern of wavy dots

What happens when the Fed raises rates or when the yield curve inverts? Can we print our way to prosperity? What triggers a recession?


Want to be able to comfortably answer all these questions? And use them to adapt your investment strategy?


Then this is the course for you.

Who am I?

Vuk Vuković
Vuk Vuković
CEO of Oraclum

Academic...

• Oxford PhD, LSE Masters, Harvard, Berkeley

• 5-year university teaching experience

• Published in top journals, book coming out

• Expert member of parliament committee


...Practitioner

• Founded and running two companies: market research consultancy & boutique rating agency

• Predicting markets @OraclumIS (170% return)

• Macro-based investor (lots of mistakes, lots of lessons)

Who is this course for?

01

Beginner or intermediate investor with basic or little prior knowledge in macro who just wants to close a few gaps

02

You earned some money but you're worried about inflation/recession and looking how to position

03

Industry professional trying to understand macro impact on portfolio performance


Key outcomes

How to break down and use basic macro models

What happens when the Fed raises rates or when the yield curve inverts? Why does it even matter?


How to avoid the traps in macro

Macro is mostly about correlations, not causality. You'll learn when to trust it and when it's better to avoid its pitfalls.

How to use macro to improve your investment decisions

Knowing where to look in order to anticipate changing economic conditions, and how to position yourself for it.

You'll use the same framework I use in understanding all things econ

This will teach you how to think like an economist, and how to know when to trust macro and when not to.

Course syllabus

01

Module 1: The basic macro model

Introducing the basic macro framework for understanding relationships between key variables; explaining the boom-bust cycle and outcomes of fiscal and monetary policy.

You will walk out with a plug-n-play framework for understanding what happens when the Fed raises rates, or when governments increase spending.

02

Module 2: International finance and dynamics

CA deficits and CP surpluses, savings and investments, Mundell-Fleming, fixed vs flexible exchange rate regimes, etc. Bringing it all together.

You will walk out with a plug-n-play framework for understanding exchange rate impacts, imports and exports, and international finance.

03

Module 3: The BS macro – everything that’s wrong with macro

Enter politics and the real world. Financial crisis 07-09. Euro sovereign debt crisis. Macro gone wrong: debts and deficits, austerity, systemic instabilities.

PLUS: a primer in causal inference.

You’ll get a good idea of when to trust macro and when not to trust it.

04

Module 4: More macro gone wrong

Inflation and hyperinflation explained. Monetary policy since 2008. QE and MMT (quantity theory of money, Fed balance sheets). Revisiting the boom-and-bust cycle.

You will walk out with an understanding of why macro models fail, what drives inflation, and the boom-and-bust cycle.

05

Module 5: Applying the knowledge

Recognizing bubbles. Applying the knowledge to financial markets. Understanding the dangers for your portfolio. Bond markets and the yield curve. Which indicators should I keep track of? Oraclum’s predictions.

You’ll walk out with a functioning knowledge of how macro impacts your portfolio and how to protect yourself from macro fluctuations.

06

Graduation day: your presentations

You will present your overview on the economy (of your choice) over the next 6 to 12 months.

Course schedule

4-6 hours per week
  • Five 2-hour modules over 2 weeks
    Medium intensity

    1:30h for content delivery & assignments.

    20-30mins for Q&A.

  • From July 1st to July 13th 2022
    7pm to 9pm Central European Time

    July 1st - module 1

    July 4th - module 2

    July 6th - module 3

    July 8th - module 4

    July 11th - module 5

    July 13th - graduation day and final presentations

    Every date the course starts at 7pm CET (1pm EST) and ends at 9pm CET (3pm EST)

Learning is better with cohorts

Learning is better with cohorts
Active, not passive

This course focuses on live workshops and hands-on projects

Learn with a cohort of peers

You’ll be learning in public through breakout rooms and an engaged community

Learn with a cohort of peers

Surround yourself with like-minded people who want to grow alongside you

Frequently Asked Questions

Are there any prerequisites for this course? Like do I need an econ degree for this?
How do I know this is for me?
Who is the course NOT for?
What outcomes can I expect to walk away with?
What happens if I can’t make a live session?
I work full-time, what is the expected time commitment?
Can I contact the instructor for more info?

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Cost

$750 USD
This course is popular.

8 people enrolled last week.