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Decision-Making for Leaders:Thinking Probabilistically & Forecasting
Make better bets. Communicate uncertainty. Design smarter decisions.
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Course overview
Thinking Probabilistically & Forecasting
Most leadership decisions are bets under uncertainty—but most leaders don’t treat them that way.
This course equips leaders with the tools, mindsets, and habits of top decision thinkers to reason in probabilities, forecast outcomes, and reduce the noise and bias that undermine decision quality.
You’ll learn how to use base rates, expected value, and confidence calibration to clarify high-stakes decisions, apply practical forecasting techniques for strategy and planning, and embed probabilistic thinking in your team’s culture—without needing a background in statistics.
Who is this course for?
01
Strategic decision-makers, and anyone shaping long-term plans under uncertainty
02
Executive Leaders:
Those responsible for high-stakes decisions who are looking to enhance organizational effectiveness and culture.
03
Mid-Level Managers:
Leaders aiming to reduce biases and increase rationality in team decision-making while improving outcomes for all.
04
Emerging Leaders:
Those aiming to build a strong foundation and gain high-quality decision-making skills early in their careers.
You will learn to:
Frame decisions as probabilistic bets and avoid “resulting” traps.
Use concepts such as base rates, expected value, and Bayesian thinking to improve judgments.
Build and evaluate forecasts using both qualitative and quantitative techniques.
Use base rates, decomposition, and expected value to improve clarity and reduce risk.
Identify and reduce overconfidence and judgment noise– individually and in teams.
Design decision processes that make your organization less surprised by the future.
What’s included
Live sessions
Learn directly from Joseph E. Sweeney, Ed.D. in a real-time, interactive format.
Lifetime access
Go back to course content and recordings whenever you need to.
Community of peers
Stay accountable and share insights with like-minded professionals.
Certificate of completion
Share your new skills with your employer or on LinkedIn.
Access to Decision Advisor GPT
Maven Guarantee
This course is backed by the Maven Guarantee. Students are eligible for a full refund up until the halfway point of the course.
Course syllabus
3 live sessions • 29 lessons
Week 1
- 📄
Decisions as Bets Under Uncertainty
- 📄
System 1 vs. System 2 Thinking
- 📄
Biases and Noise as Hidden Threats
- 📄
Kickoff Activity
- 📄
Using Base Rates to Improve Judgments
- 📄
Expected Value as a Strategic Tool
- 📄
Combining Base Rates and EV
- 📄
Hands-On Exercise
- 📄
What Forecasting Is (and Isn’t)
- 📄
Qualitative and Quantitative Forecasting Techniques
- 📄
Decomposition and Fermi Estimation
- 📄
Live Forecasting Lab
- 📄
What Calibration Is and Why It Matters
- 📄
Overconfidence and Underconfidence in Action
- 📄
Improving Calibration
- 📄
Interactive Exercise
- 📄
Why Teams Are Often Noisy
- 📄
Decision Hygiene for Teams
- 📄
Aggregating Forecasts
- 📄
Group Exercise
- 📄
Embedding Probabilistic Thinking into Leadership Routines
- 📄
Communicating Uncertainty Without Losing Authority
- 📄
Forecast-Backed Decision Proposals
- ✍️
Capstone Activity
Submit by Jul 20
Oct
7
Session 1: Leadership Is Betting—Adopting a Probabilistic Mindset
Module 1: Leadership as Bets — The Case for Probabilistic Thinking
Module 2: Base Rates and Expected Value — Tools for Better Bets
Oct
8
Session 2: From Gut Feel to Forecast—Tools for Better Anticipation
Module 3: Forecasting 101 — Building and Interpreting Better Judgments
Module 4: Confidence Calibration and Judgment Accuracy
Module 5: Group Judgment, Aggregation, and Noise Reduction
Oct
9
Session 3: Designing Decision Systems that Learn
Module 6: Designing a Probabilistic Decision Culture
Bonus
- 📚
Recommended Reading
- 📄
1:1 Decision Advising with Joe
- 📄
Confidence calibration tool
- 📄
Forecast journal template
- 📄
Decision hygiene checklist
- 📄
EV calculator template
Recommended Reading
Optional: Advising Session
Included Materials
Most leadership decisions are bets under uncertainty—but most leaders don’t treat them that way.
Meet your instructor
Joseph E. Sweeney, Ed.D.
Joseph E. Sweeney, Ed.D.
President and Founder
With over three decades of experience spanning education, leadership, and innovation, Joseph Sweeney is a recognized leader in decision-making and organizational transformation.
As the founder and President of the Decision Leadership Institute, Joe leverages his extensive background in education, executive leadership, and decision science to equip leaders with the tools to improve judgment and decision quality across their organizations.
Before founding DLI, Joe served as the Executive Director of the Alliance for Decision Education, where he led a national movement to bring decision education into K-12 learning. Under his leadership, the organization grew from a regional initiative to a national force, developing award-winning programs, securing millions in program and research funding, and establishing a robust community of thought leaders, including Nobel Laureates. Joe’s strategic vision and expertise in scaling organizations have made him a trusted advisor in leadership circles.
With advanced degrees in mathematics, economics, and educational leadership from institutions such as Villanova University, Temple University, and the University of Pennsylvania, Joe’s work continues to shape how leaders and organizations approach decision-making in complex, rapidly changing environments.
Course Schedule
5 hours
Tuesday - Session 1
1:00pm - 2:30pm EST
This course consists of 3 sessions, each lasting 90 minutes.
Sessions are conducted live and synchronously, allowing for real-time interaction and participation.
Wednesday - Session 2
1:00 - 2:30 pm EST
Thursday - Session 3
1:00 - 2:30 pm EST
Optional: 1:1 Advising Session
30 mins
Your Decision Leadership Journey Starts Here
Dynamic and Interactive
Engage in quizzes, case studies, and exercises that help you apply decision-making concepts directly to your unique situation.
Small, Focused Cohorts
We cap our courses at 18 to ensure high-quality discussions, personalized feedback, and a tailored learning experience that addresses your leadership challenges.
Learn with a cohort of peers
Join a community of like-minded people who want to learn and grow alongside you
Actionable Takeaways
Gain practical tools, frameworks, and strategies that you can implement right away, helping you and your organization make better, more informed decisions immediately.
Cutting-Edge Decision Science
Innovative, research-backed course content, frameworks, and methodologies will ensure that you are positioned to tackle the uncertainty of our modern and complex world.
Continued Learning & Support
Stay connected through our newsletter, coaching sessions, decision-making resources, and community forums for continuous learning and long-term success.