Decision-Making for Leaders:Thinking Probabilistically & Forecasting

3 Days

·

Cohort-based Course

Make better bets. Communicate uncertainty. Design smarter decisions.

Previously at

Penn
Columbia University
Villanova University
Thomas Jefferson University
Society of Decision Professionals

Course overview

Thinking Probabilistically & Forecasting

Most leadership decisions are bets under uncertainty—but most leaders don’t treat them that way.


This course equips leaders with the tools, mindsets, and habits of top decision thinkers to reason in probabilities, forecast outcomes, and reduce the noise and bias that undermine decision quality.


You’ll learn how to use base rates, expected value, and confidence calibration to clarify high-stakes decisions, apply practical forecasting techniques for strategy and planning, and embed probabilistic thinking in your team’s culturewithout needing a background in statistics.


Who is this course for?

01

Strategic decision-makers, and anyone shaping long-term plans under uncertainty

02

Executive Leaders:

Those responsible for high-stakes decisions who are looking to enhance organizational effectiveness and culture.

03

Mid-Level Managers:

Leaders aiming to reduce biases and increase rationality in team decision-making while improving outcomes for all.

04

Emerging Leaders:

Those aiming to build a strong foundation and gain high-quality decision-making skills early in their careers.

You will learn to:

Frame decisions as probabilistic bets and avoid “resulting” traps.


Use concepts such as base rates, expected value, and Bayesian thinking to improve judgments.


Build and evaluate forecasts using both qualitative and quantitative techniques.



Use base rates, decomposition, and expected value to improve clarity and reduce risk.

Identify and reduce overconfidence and judgment noise– individually and in teams.


Design decision processes that make your organization less surprised by the future.

What’s included

Joseph E. Sweeney, Ed.D.

Live sessions

Learn directly from Joseph E. Sweeney, Ed.D. in a real-time, interactive format.

Lifetime access

Go back to course content and recordings whenever you need to.

Community of peers

Stay accountable and share insights with like-minded professionals.

Certificate of completion

Share your new skills with your employer or on LinkedIn.

Access to Decision Advisor GPT

Maven Guarantee

This course is backed by the Maven Guarantee. Students are eligible for a full refund up until the halfway point of the course.

Course syllabus

3 live sessions • 29 lessons

Week 1

Oct 7—Oct 9

    Oct

    7

    Session 1: Leadership Is Betting—Adopting a Probabilistic Mindset

    Tue 10/75:00 PM—6:30 PM (UTC)

    Module 1: Leadership as Bets — The Case for Probabilistic Thinking

    4 items

    Module 2: Base Rates and Expected Value — Tools for Better Bets

    4 items

    Oct

    8

    Session 2: From Gut Feel to Forecast—Tools for Better Anticipation

    Wed 10/85:00 PM—6:30 PM (UTC)

    Module 3: Forecasting 101 — Building and Interpreting Better Judgments

    4 items

    Module 4: Confidence Calibration and Judgment Accuracy

    4 items

    Module 5: Group Judgment, Aggregation, and Noise Reduction

    4 items

    Oct

    9

    Session 3: Designing Decision Systems that Learn

    Thu 10/95:00 PM—6:30 PM (UTC)

    Module 6: Designing a Probabilistic Decision Culture

    4 items

Post-course

    30-day forecast review prompt + learning journal check-in

    0 items

Bonus

    Recommended Reading

    1 item

    Optional: Advising Session

    1 item

    Included Materials

    4 items
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Most leadership decisions are bets under uncertainty—but most leaders don’t treat them that way.

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Meet your instructor

Joseph E. Sweeney, Ed.D.

Joseph E. Sweeney, Ed.D.

President and Founder

Decision Leadership Institute




With over three decades of experience spanning education, leadership, and innovation, Joseph Sweeney is a recognized leader in decision-making and organizational transformation.


As the founder and President of the Decision Leadership Institute, Joe leverages his extensive background in education, executive leadership, and decision science to equip leaders with the tools to improve judgment and decision quality across their organizations.


Before founding DLI, Joe served as the Executive Director of the Alliance for Decision Education, where he led a national movement to bring decision education into K-12 learning. Under his leadership, the organization grew from a regional initiative to a national force, developing award-winning programs, securing millions in program and research funding, and establishing a robust community of thought leaders, including Nobel Laureates. Joe’s strategic vision and expertise in scaling organizations have made him a trusted advisor in leadership circles.


With advanced degrees in mathematics, economics, and educational leadership from institutions such as Villanova University, Temple University, and the University of Pennsylvania, Joe’s work continues to shape how leaders and organizations approach decision-making in complex, rapidly changing environments.

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Join an upcoming cohort

Decision-Making for Leaders:Thinking Probabilistically & Forecasting

Forecasting 1

$800

Dates

Oct 7—9, 2025

Payment Deadline

Oct 4, 2025
Get reimbursed

Course Schedule

5 hours

  • Tuesday - Session 1

    1:00pm - 2:30pm EST

    This course consists of 3 sessions, each lasting 90 minutes.


    Sessions are conducted live and synchronously, allowing for real-time interaction and participation.

  • Wednesday - Session 2

    1:00 - 2:30 pm EST


  • Thursday - Session 3

    1:00 - 2:30 pm EST

  • Optional: 1:1 Advising Session

    30 mins

Your Decision Leadership Journey Starts Here

Your Decision Leadership Journey Starts Here

Dynamic and Interactive

Engage in quizzes, case studies, and exercises that help you apply decision-making concepts directly to your unique situation.

Small, Focused Cohorts

We cap our courses at 18 to ensure high-quality discussions, personalized feedback, and a tailored learning experience that addresses your leadership challenges.

Learn with a cohort of peers

Join a community of like-minded people who want to learn and grow alongside you

Actionable Takeaways

Gain practical tools, frameworks, and strategies that you can implement right away, helping you and your organization make better, more informed decisions immediately.

Cutting-Edge Decision Science

Innovative, research-backed course content, frameworks, and methodologies will ensure that you are positioned to tackle the uncertainty of our modern and complex world.

Continued Learning & Support

Stay connected through our newsletter, coaching sessions, decision-making resources, and community forums for continuous learning and long-term success.

A pattern of wavy dots

Join an upcoming cohort

Decision-Making for Leaders:Thinking Probabilistically & Forecasting

Forecasting 1

$800

Dates

Oct 7—9, 2025

Payment Deadline

Oct 4, 2025
Get reimbursed

$800

3 Days